Pakistan started their ICC Champions Trophy 2025 campaign with a 60-run loss against New Zealand. Chasing 320 runs, they managed only 260 before getting all out. This defeat put them in a tough spot, making their next matches against India and Bangladesh crucial for semifinal qualification.
- Pakistan must win against both India and Bangladesh.
- They need to ensure at most one other team wins two or more matches.
- If multiple teams end up with two wins, Net Run Rate (NRR) will decide qualification.
Pakistan’s Qualification Scenarios
Pakistan still has a strong chance to qualify for the semifinals. However, they must win both of their remaining matches. Let’s analyze different scenarios:
Scenario 1: If India Beats Bangladesh & Pakistan Wins Both Matches
- India defeats Bangladesh
- Pakistan defeats India
- Bangladesh defeats or loses to New Zealand
- Pakistan defeats Bangladesh
- India defeats or loses to New Zealand
Final Standings in Favorable Cases:
- PAK-2, IND-2, NZ-1, BAN-1 (Pakistan qualifies)
- PAK-2, IND-1, NZ-3, BAN-0 (Pakistan qualifies)
However, if New Zealand defeats Bangladesh but loses to India, the semifinal race will depend on NRR.
Scenario 2: If Bangladesh Beats India & Pakistan Wins Both Matches
- Bangladesh defeats India
- Pakistan defeats India
- Bangladesh defeats or loses to New Zealand
- Pakistan defeats Bangladesh
- India defeats or loses to New Zealand
Final Standings in Favorable Cases:
- PAK-2, BAN-2, IND-1, NZ-1 (Pakistan qualifies)
- PAK-2, NZ-3, BAN-1, IND-0 (Pakistan qualifies)
If New Zealand loses to Bangladesh but wins against India, Pakistan’s NRR will determine their semifinal fate.
What Happens if Pakistan Loses One More Match?
If Pakistan loses one of their remaining matches, they can’t secure a guaranteed semifinal spot. Their qualification would then depend on other teams losing multiple matches and NRR calculations.
Can Pakistan Qualify Without Net Run Rate?
Yes, Pakistan can qualify without NRR complications if:
- They win both matches.
- At most one other team secures two or more wins.
Pakistan still has a realistic chance to reach the semifinals. However, their only safe route is winning against India and Bangladesh. Any slip-up could mean their fate depends on other teams’ results or NRR calculations.
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